QES reveals strong results

Dr John Ashcroft, Chief Economist at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce

The Quarterly Economic Breakfast revealed a strong set of results from the Chamber’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES).

In his presentation the Chamber’s Chief Economist, Dr John Ashcroft, said the QES results suggested growth of 3.1% this year, as Greater Manchester’s economy continued to reflect the upturn in the wider UK economy.

He added that although there had been a dip in the Manchester Index™, which is based on a selection of QES responses, this was largely due to a drop in exports.

He said: “Employment trends are very strong and very, very positive. There’s also a strong recovery in investment.

“The Index did not drop because of the home market. Home orders are strong but export orders have plummeted. It is the international picture that has driven the drop in the overall Index.”

Dr Ashcroft explained that the QES showed economic growth was being powered by the service sector, with hotels, leisure and business services particularly strong. However, aerospace and automotive manufacturers continued to perform well.

He said the growth in the economy had led to big falls in the unemployment claimant count, with the number of claimants falling below one million in August.

“The consumer confidence figures are very strong, as people see this as a great time to spend. Retail spending is looking good and car sales are up,” he added.

Looking at the rest of the world, he said North America was recovering but growth in South America was weak. Meanwhile, India and China continued to produce good figures but low growth in Europe made it the ‘problem child’ of the global economy.

The QES briefing was followed by a question and answer session. Topics discussed included the state of the German economy, the impact of the political situation in Ukraine on trade with Russia and proposals to increases the minimum wage.

The meeting also included a presentation by Craig Rodger, Director of 50-2-1 Business of the Week JLT, on how his company is helping smaller businesses cope with the requirements of pension auto-enrolment. He outlined the affordable support available from JLT, including a main point of contact in its Manchester office and fact sheets dealing with frequently asked questions about auto-enrolment.

Chris Fletcher, the Chamber’s Policy & Communications Director, brought the event to a close by talking about the launch of the Chamber’s Campaign for Business 2015. He highlighted the Campaign’s five themes, in particular the issue of devolving more power to city regions such as Manchester.

The Quarterly Economic Breakfast was held at HSBC, Spinningfields, Manchester on September 26.