Why the economy will be rough for a while longer

Posted By: Peter Evans
Date Posted: 11/11/2011

It's time to identify the costs that Britain would incur if the UK suddenly failed to tackle its debt problem the way it has been doing. If we adopted the approach taken in the eurozone or followed the strategy that has frequently been advocated by the opposition and thereby lost the trust of the World Bank, the extra cost, as calculated by leading economists, would be between £1 billion and £2 billion per year.
If we take the lowest figure in that range - £1 billion - that works out at £19,230,769 EXTRA INTEREST per week (that's £2,747,252 extra per day) - minimum - the upper estimate is twice these amounts.
A billion can have different meanings, I use the UK value of 1000 million as against the French value of 1,000,000 million - which is appropriate, as I have used UK sources to verify the data.
In any language this is a staggering figure. It would obviously affect every man, woman and child in one way or another. It would delay our recovery significantly if UK resources had to be spent in this way.
Additionally, the eurozone crisis will have repercussions across the world if it fails to get sorted - which includes us. It could tip us into another recession.
During the TIF bid saga, in October 2008 (the proposed Traffic Improvement Framework that involved the introduction of a congestion charging levy which I strongly opposed) I was quoted in a feature published on Rochdale on Line and in the local press: "Analysts in all the major political parties believe that it will be at least five years before the economy recovers from the imminent recession, a position which will see little economic investment and growth within that period, while job losses are set to continue."
I note how some politicians are using the outcome foreseeable then (as an inevitable consequence of 2008 governments' decisions here and across Europe and elsewhere), in an attempt to lay the blame on our current Government. Shame on them! But that's politics I suppose, I guess thousands will allow themselves to be misled by that piece of political spin.
The current situation in the eurozone is highly likely to lead to a worsening economic result into the start of 2012 but the UK is predicted by world economists to emerge from it and show a positive outcome of improvement from then on if it continues to hold fast to its resolve to tackle its debts.
Anyone reading this and accepting the facts available for anyone to confirm, will understand why an RMBC councillor like me believes that it is important to share information that will directly affect us all in many ways.
To suggest that Britain should follow a course that will destroy its ability to avoid severe hardship for millions of people is simply not on my radar.