Tier 3 looking likely for region but should be reviewed at first opportunity, says Burnham

Andy Burnham says it is ‘more likely than not’ that Greater Manchester will be put into the highest tier of coronavirus restrictions despite falling infection rates.

The mayor is expecting that the new measures, due to be shared with leaders tomorrow, will be applied consistently across Greater Manchester.

But the government has been urged to look at the area's position in two weeks when the first review of the revised arrangements takes place.

There are widely-held expectations that almost no regions in England will be in anything lower than Tier 2 once the national lockdown ends on December 2.

Greater Manchester had been in Tier 3 before the lockdown after reporting some of the highest Covid-19 rates in the country.

Things have changed in the last week, with the regional rate falling from 432.4 cases per 100,000 people to 291.7 per 100,000.

With rates still above the national average, Mr Burnham has conceded that the region was heading ‘at some speed towards the Tier 3-Tier 2 borderline’.

Speaking at his weekly media briefing, he said: “We have certainly made the argument that it’s a very different picture if you have high numbers on a rapidly falling trend than slightly lower numbers on a rapidly rising trend.

“That said I think it’s more likely than not that the government will put us in Tier 3 given the statements that ministers have made about the majority of [regions] being disappointed and practically nobody being in Tier 1.

“I think they’re giving a quite clear steer that they’re going to err on the side of caution.

“But if [the drop in infection rates] continue in this direction at the rate at which we’re seeing, I would want to ask the government for a serious review of Greater Manchester’s position.”

When asked if it was right for ministers to come out against negotiating with local areas on the tiering system, Mr Burnham suggested that a ‘sense of fairness’ was needed.

On Tuesday health secretary Matt Hancock said he wanted no repeats of the row between government and Greater Manchester leaders over tiering and associated financial support in October.

Mr Burnham said: “I don’t know why [the government] wanted to open up that row again.

“Evidence has got to drive these decisions, not political considerations. Just imposing things when there’s not hard or fast thresholds won’t necessarily build the public trust we all need.”

Niall Griffiths, Local Democracy Reporter