Opinion: General Election is a two horse race in Rochdale

General Election 2017

Just a day before the polls open in the general election we take a look at the chances of each of the candidates in the Rochdale constituency and conclude just two, Labour's Tony Lloyd and the Conservative's Jane Howard, have a realistic chance of winning (the Heywood & Middleton seat is, in our opinion, a straightforward win for Labour's Liz McInnes).

Labour's local campaign has been a strong one. The party has worked hard to get the message out to the electorate, using a mix of media advertising, leaflets, posters and party activists doing what they do best, helping their candidate knock on doors and meet voters. Whilst he will not reach the lofty heights of the local Labour vote at the last general election (which was inflated by the Lib Dem collapse locally and nationally), Mr Lloyd's message of experience and a safe pair of hands still looks set to give him a reasonable majority.

The Conservative campaign has been more low key, and that could ultimately cost Jane Howard vital votes. Ms Howard will undoubtedly do better than any Conservative candidate in Rochdale for decades, not least because she is a decent, well regarded, local woman. She will also be the beneficiary of votes that were cast for UKIP at the last general election and may attract the votes of some who vote Lib Dem in local elections but will switch to the Tories at this general election. However, based on the information we have gleaned to date, it will not be enough.

Andy Kelly, the Lib Dem candidate, is likely to be the most frustrated candidate come Friday morning because he has given the campaign his all, but the local Lib Dems simply do not have the organisation they used to have, or the funds, to cover the ground needed. Moreover, the Lib Dems nationally appear to have failed to spark the come back they promised in this election. Our view is Mr Kelly will increase the Lib Dem vote from the last election - as a result of a personal vote for him rather than a Lib Dem revival - but nowhere near enough to win.

UKIP is likely to see its vote considerably reduced all over the country and in Rochdale, with a lacklustre local campaign with little organisation to back the candidate, Chris Baksa, we anticipate a collapse in the local UKIP vote.

Andy Littlewood, standing as the 'Greater Manchester Homeless Voice' candidate, of course knows he has no chance of winning but he gets our respect for seeking to highlight the plight of homeless people via his election campaign. Sadly, we see only a lost deposit in store for Mr Littlewood come Friday morning.

We end with the most controversial candidate, the disgraced former MP Simon Danczuk, standing as an Independent - a man who has shown himself to be wholly unsuited to be an MP will fail to muster anything like the number of votes he expects. Not so low as to lose his deposit, as his many detractors are hoping, but low enough to deal his ego a blow.

It should be noted that Mr Danczuk did some good things as Rochdale MP, but the good was so outweighed by the scandals, and overshadowed by lurid headlines in the media, that it has cost him his political career.

We could of course be wrong, Simon Danczuk could romp to victory with an increased majority, chased close behind by Messrs Littlewood and Baksa with Mr Kelly, Ms Howard and Mr Lloyd bringing up the rear... because who really knows until the votes are actually counted?

Come what may, there will be a great deal of interest in the Rochdale result and Rochdale Online will be at the count at the Town Hall bringing you live commentary, photos and video clips throughout the night into the early hours of Friday morning - the result is expected around 3.00am.

https://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/news-features/elections/election-summary/27/rochdale-general-election-2017